ali ti lahko prestaviš iz D? To je muka okvar avtomatikov...in ne pomaga drugo kot avtovleka
A ni za to šraufencigr v avtu pa tisti pokrovček pri šaltheblu? Kakor sem jaz razumel navodila, daš v tisto luknjo šraufencigr ali nekaj podobnega in potem gre menjalnik lahko v N. Je že kdo preizkusil v praksi?
Kaj se bomo skrivali, saj ne divjam non stop. Edini dokaz za kazen je meritev na licu mesta in pa (vsaj v ZDA) kakšen objavljen posnetek, kjer se vidi števec in omejitev. Malo hitreje se pa vsak kdaj pelje, tako pač je, če te izmerijo pač plačaš. Jaz sem kazen z Mazdo že dobil. Namesto 70 je bilo malo čez 90, pa so se lučke za mano zagnale, da so me komaj ujele, ker sem si že prednost nabral. 😁
Preden dobiš pike zvestobe na avtocesti gre po števcu lahko nekje do 175 km/h. Točno sami preverite. Je pa malo odvisno a te dobijo s provido ali iz stacionarnega radarja. So različne tolerance. V glavnem, če je prosto grem jaz nekje med 150 in 160. Nekako se v avtu niti občuti ne. Več je pa že izjema. Večinoma je pa tako gneča ter povsod tovornjaki in gre med 100 in 130 z nekimi konstantni manevriranji med obema pasovoma in prehitevanji...
Nekako takole - 40, 50 in 60 let nazaj je bilo mogoče malo lažje priti do nepremičnine oz. je bilo nekako lažje rešiti enega izmed osnovnih izzivov mladega človeka, ki se mu reče stanovanjski problem, ker cene še nekako niso bile tako odvisne od lokacije in tudi ljudi je bilo manj. Te nepremičnine se danes mlajšim generacijam prodaja za faktorje vrednosti proti včasih. Pa tu ne govorim o inflaciji, ampak splošno razmerje cena / plača. Res je, da večini ljudem manjka osnovna izobrazba o financah, ki včasih ni bila tako nujna, ker je spet bilo manj ljudi, ki bi jo imelo.
Na koncu je pa nekako tako - če ni rešen stanovanjski problem, potem tudi otrok ni in spet se vrtimo v krogu glede demografije. Nujne stvari, kot je infrastruktura, pa trpijo, ker ni ljudi, ki bi opravljali delo, ker primanjkuje že tistih, ki bodo v domovih za ostarele riti brisali. Kaj je zdaj prioriteta? Berem, da v nekatrih naših šolah že čistilke kuhajo... Super.
Lahko bi se še razpisal, verjetno se nikoli ne bomo o vsem strinjali, ampak to je nekako temelj problemov. Lahko zraven vmešaš še globalizacijo in konkurenco iz delov sveta, o katerih so 50 let nazaj tukaj mislili, da znajo samo riž žreti in nič drugega početi. Pa da jih briga, kaj zlijejo v vodo, ko nekaj proizvajajo, tu pa nas vsak metuljček prestraši.
Dejstvo je, da postajam pristaš tega, da tekom življenja vsak sam s pravo finančno izobrazbo poskrbi za svojo penzijo, klasični sistem penzij bi bilo treba pa ukiniti, ker je deloval v primeru demografske piramide (več delovne populacije), ne demografskega tornada (več starejših), kot ga imamo danes. Sam - to pomeni, da dobiš bruto plačo, zdaj jo pa zagoni za droge, pijačo, kurbe ali pa razmišljaj, kako boš živel čez 50 let, da ne bo vse obviselo na mlajših.
- to, da dobiš kot mlad človek službo, je že samoumevno
- mladina se pase na plečetih ljudi, ki trdo delajo za nikakve plače, oni se pa zajebavajo v pisarnah
1. Se strinjam. Sicer je tudi vprašanje kaj šteješ pod delo. Delo ni samo kmetija od zore do mraka...
2. Res je, glavni razlog je demografija, kot sem že večkrat omenil. Ljudi se veliko potrebuje, privoščiti si jih ne more nihče. No, lahko si jih, samo se je treba odpovedati malo dobička.
3. Mladina tako, starejši pa na plečih mladih iz pogleda nepremičnin. Zato takšen sistem, ki je bil zamišljen v prejšnjih demografskih trendih, na dolgi rok ne deluje.
Še nekaj - super je, da želijo, da so vsi delavci pri VW-ju plačani kot je treba (pustimo dobavitelje, to je čisto druga zgodba), samo da ima pa vsak, ki zategne 100 šraufov na dan 3000€ plače, je pa tudi dolgoročno nevzdržno.
Glede posodobitev osnovnih Mazda zemljevidov tudi mene zanima - Mazda 6, letnik 2019. Ali se posodabljajo samo zemljevidi ali še kaj drugega v infotainment sistemu?
Glede HUD-a in Google maps - to tudi pri meni ne deluje. Samo Mazda zemljevidi na HUD-u kažejo napotke. Mogoče je možno pri novejših Mazda letnikih?
S konkurenco se strinjam, tudi s tem, da je avtomobilska industrija malo zaspala in da EU brca sama sebe v rit. Samo cena in produkt, ki ga dobiš v nekem trenutku v roke ni vse. Se bo treba še na dolgi rok izkazati s kvaliteto in POPRODAJNO PODPORO. Tu je še veliko neznank, vsaj če mene vprašate in to ne gre iz danes na jutri. Zaenkrat vsi pozitivno komentirajo prve vtise in ceno, ker je to vse kar lahko. Hyundai in Kia sta zdaj pri nas na visokem nivoju, samo ne pozabiti, da je trajalo 20 let, da se je to postavilo na mesto.
V glavnem, jaz bi še malo počakal, preden skočim na vlak, ki ne vem kam pelje.
To je problem. Ker se mora najprej iz malo večje mase EVjev narediti trg rabljenih, da se bo malo vedelo kaj lahko pričakuješ. Že pri ICEjih je nakup rabljenega malo loterija, pri EVjih pa zaenkrat še sploh.
To mi je jasno in seveda se vozim z vinjeto. Pa tudi sliko za kazen sem že videl. Samo zanima me kako pogost je nadzor. Včasih so na bivših cestninskih postajah in izvozih kontrolirali z daljnogledi, če imaš vinjeto prilepljeno. Danes lahko pa to naredijo samo tam, kjer so kamere nad voznimi pasovi ali še kje drugje? Ker veliko kratkih odsekov, ki jih marsikdo uporablja za dnevne migracije, s tem ni pokritih.
Kako pa je to s sigurno kaznijo? A to nas zdaj vsakega kamere pregledajo, če so vinjete? Tam, ko jih ni, si težko predstavljam, da to deluje. Recimo neki kratki odseki med dvema ali tremi izvozi.
Folks, having read through some of the posts that are coming through the social (and not so social) media feeds on the subject matter, I had to add my 10 cents to the debate. The reason I feel called to do so is that I worry about the misunderstandings, disinformation and sometimes plain lies that are being conveyed relative to the future of the industry. One can speculate whether it’s by ignorance, or if it’s deliberate. It’s a cruel world with a raging trade war and, like in other wars, truth tends to be the first victim. In some cases, the messages I read bear the fingerprints of unfriendly powers, who wish their doom-and-gloom prophecies will become self-fulfilling.
De-bunking the bankruptcy myth
To start: The entire European auto industry is NOT about to go bankrupt! At least not in the near term. Despite over-investment in BEV technologies that don’t sell, recent revenue drops, mounting inventory, and EU politicians that unintelligently are trying their best to kill off the very industry that still is the backbone of the European economy, the automakers are surprisingly healthy financially.
To back that up: Even VW, who right now tends to be the poster child for everything gone wrong in the European auto industry, reports very healthy cash flows and an even healthier liquidity position. And, as you may know, it’s the shortage of cash, not the shortage of attractive BEV’s that makes companies go bankrupt. VW margins are uninspiring but no worse than what has been normal in the past.
Stellantis, who has caught a lot of press lately due to its leadership turmoil, reports very survivable margins with an EBIT of 6.6% (9.9% adjusted) for the first half of 2024, and while that may seem pale to someone who is used to non-vehicle related businesses, it’s actually relatively good. A car OEM rarely reaches above 8% even in a good year. Their net cash flow is less than a year ago on the back of rising inventories but still comfortably positive. And this is the OEM who most flagrantly ignored the electrification trend, with perhaps the worst brand management and the most watered-down product offer in the Western hemisphere right now. But anywhere close to bankruptcy they are not!
I could go on. Mercedes Group reported lower margins in Q3 than a year ago but that’s from levels that were exceptionally high, and net cash flow is healthy. Volvo Cars margins increased in Q3 over last year and financial performance is better than what we have seen consistently from them, and if the (struggling) Chinese owners can refrain from tapping the company for too much dividend, they will also have the muscles to take on the future.
If you want to look for near-bankrupt companies in the European auto industry, you need to look to the tier 1 and tier 2 suppliers, which nobody is talking or writing about. Much of the R&D spend and fixed asset investments connected to electrification have been born by the suppliers. Due to a combination of absent volume growth, already drained liquidity since the pandemic, soaring cost of labour and materials, with little to no compensation from the OEM’s, here’s where you will see the real crisis in the near term. And, yes, that will also be costly for the OEM’s who, in many cases, will have to bail out suppliers they are depending on. But will it sink the entire industry ship? No!
Dealers are also increasingly struggling but not from Chinese competition but from changes in how consumers buy cars and OEM’s prefer to distribute them.
Is there a problem? Yes!
So, is all well then and nothing to worry about? Of course not! The European auto industry is facing monumental challenges in the years to come. Some are generated by self-destructive policies introduced by sloppy and populistic politicians in Brussels, some by militant and very short-sighted (mostly German) trade unions, but many are also home cooked in the board rooms of the industry itself. Let’s start with the latter.
The sideline experts who blame the European auto industry for being slow adopters of electrification are mostly right. Even if there were advanced BEV concept cars and engineering studies already 20 years ago, of which I had the pleasure of being involved in some, real BEV offers didn’t hit showrooms until after Tesla had already taken top spot for top selling models. Political pressure in the form of a 2035 ban on ICE’s and aggressive fleet CO2 legislation was obviously necessary for OEM leaders to seriously start kicking engineering butts to force credible BEV adds to the model line-up. Even worse, battery technology, which is the make-or-break factor for BEV success wasn’t seen as critical until very recently, and maybe this is the biggest tragedy of all. A couple of successful Northvolts would have made the Chinese battery leash a little longer. But we all know that Northvolt was everything but a success, and Europe stands without a large-scale regional battery production. Shame on us.
So, here we are. Finally, a line-up of European made BEV’s is actually available. You can buy a European made BEV in any segment. But technologically, they are like yesterday’s fish. They are mostly built on ICE intended platforms and, thus, the value-to-cost ratio is bad, making them uncompetitive. ICE’s with or without hybridization, are still the bread and butter for most European automakers and that’s where they make the money.
According to a recent study by UBS, the VW ID.3 is 27% more expensive to make than the BYD Seal, despite that the Seal has more functionality and content, and is undoubtedly better looking, and has a higher sticker price than the ID.3. We can bet every European OEM CEO would die to have a Seal equivalent in their line-up today.
But let’s ask ourselves the question what would have happened if the European OEM’s had been faster, let’s say two years faster, and shunned ICE development, doubled up on BEV engineering and capacity investments and started scrapping engine plants several years ago, where would they have been today? Well, chances are, they would have been a lot worse. I’ll explain why.
Part of the issue is outlined in the famous Draghi report. When the EU embarked on its kill-the-ICE journey, the politicians looked at the OEM’s, telling them to go fix the CO2 problem by replacing ICE’s with electric powertrains. In 2035 it will be game over for ICE’s anyway. Better hurry up! Then they all went back to sleep in Brussels. They totally and completely ignored the fact that transportation, both manufacturing and operation of vehicles is a very complex eco-system that has developed over 100+ years. And it doesn’t change overnight because Ursula von der Leyen tells it to. Actually, much of that eco-system, for instance provision of competitively priced and sufficiently available electricity, can only be changed through government action. But governments had their heads up their a***s. And this part of the equation happens to be, by all means, the restricting factor for BEV sales in Europe, unless you want to throw tons of government funded purchase incentives at it, which is unsustainable and unfair in any case. Consumers aren’t stupid. They buy what makes sense and right now, judging from the BEV market share, buying a BEV makes sense for about 15% of car consumers in Europe. Not because of unavailability of BEV’s, not even of European made BEV’s, but because of the business case for buying one. For the Chinese to eat into that 15% isn’t exactly wiping the Europeans off their own map.
The European auto industry is currently suffering from under-utilization of BEV capacity. (BtW, so are the Chinese.) Tier 1 and tier 2 suppliers are the ones that are suffering, by far, the most. What if those investments were twice as big and what if ICE capacities had been undone the same way politicians have scrapped electrical power capacity? Then, I am convinced, we would have had a real financial crisis in the European auto industry today. Thankfully, the slow adoption of the all-electric paradigm seems to have saved the backbone of the European economy this time.
Looking forward, it’s a completely different story! The migration from ICEV to BEV is there. What we are experiencing now is a temporary drop in the curve. Thankfully, that drop is well-timed for the Europeans and gives them a bit of breathing space to rally the troops and start closing the gap to the Chinese. Both at the battery level, and complete vehicle level. And the house is on fire. A lot has to change to have a fighting chance to save it! And here’s my take on what needs to change:
What’s critical to future success
1. Speed
Time to market has been a buzz expression for decades but, to be honest, lead times to bring new product to market by European OEM’s is still pretty much the same today as in the 1980’s, if it involves any significant change to mechanical or digital architecture. Ambitions can be high but reality often gets in the way. Taking 4-5 years from program kick-off to start of production may have been survivable before but not anymore, when battery chemistries, ADAS enabling sensor tech, HMI expectations etc etc develops quicker than you can summon a cross functional meeting in Europe. New bumper facias or a new upholstery in a new nuance of grey don’t sell cars anymore. New technology does.
2. Ditch the platform paradigm
To achieve the speed, the traditional platform thinking which was taught from Toyota decades ago and that is still religion among European OEM’s to this day, has to go! To design chassis, under-body structure, electrical/digital architecture and powertrain, freeze it for 7-10 years and give the top hat 2-3 freshening cycles will not work. Tesla turned this thinking upside down and has kept the A surfaces, the interior and exterior trim the same and then constantly changed the “unchangeable”; chassis, software, under-body structures and powertrain to incorporate new technology. And they do it fast, and it works! By constantly introducing significant running changes, they also eliminate risk. A good example is the mega-castings which were done as a running mid-cycle change, with massive cost advantages, while having the incumbent steel structure as a fallback. Brilliant! But unthinkable with the traditional platform mindset.
After years as a supplier to OEM’s in all parts of the world, I can testify to the fundamentally different mindsets of automakers winning market share today, and those who lose. When presenting new value-add technology to the winners, the first question is “how fast can you deliver this?” And they will almost always push for even faster introduction. The Chinese are exceptionally good with this. When doing the same to traditional European OEM’s, the answer is often “no, we have frozen the platform design, come back in 5 years when we have a change window”. I have myself been subscribing to that exact mindset during my OEM career. But we have to realize that it’s obsolete and potentially lethal in the current competitive environment. This is largely a culture change, which is why it is so difficult. The people who have been paid to say no all their lives, now have to be motivated to say yes and produce a plan that delivers.
3. Control the battery
The battery of a BEV corresponds to about 40% of the total vehicle cost and is, apart from the infotainment system, what sets one BEV apart from the other, much like the engines have done for ICE cars up until now. To not control the innovations, the chemical secrets to the performance characteristics, and the delicate manufacturing processes of this paramount element of the car is not a good place to be. Most Chinese automakers don’t control it either, to be fair, since they too have outsourced it to the likes of BYD and CATL. But to be so out of control as the Europeans are today will shackle them to a guaranteed uncompetitive 40% of the material cost and getting new technology last, until the industry, politics and academia in Europe put their heads together and decide to take control. For a while, normally angry competitors will have to hold their fire and cooperate. The industry has proven before that they can cooperate, like when natural disasters strike the supply chain, and this should be treated like one of those moments.
4. Sweat
Here’s where it becomes even more difficult. The entire Western society has to realize that competition is no longer next door. Working for a car company in Cologne, does no longer mean that competition has license plates beginning with WOB and with a similar lifestyle and economic situation. No, in addition to all the factors mentioned above, competition is now in a place where engineers work 80 hours per week, get heavily rewarded for success and heavily penalized for under-performance, and are producing thousands of patents each year in areas crucial to BEV attractiveness. Where factory workers earn a fraction of their equivalents in the free world and are disappointed if not given the chance to work overtime to earn more money. Competition also has in excess of 50% over-capacity in their manufacturing plants, and a government that have handed out big checks for tooling and equipment investments, and pushing OEM’s hard to export their products.
How do we make up for that difference? I don’t know. In the short term, maybe trade barriers like the ones implemented by the EU will help somewhat. But it’s not more than a band aid on a splintered femur. Ultimately, we have to call in the surgeon. And chances are that the treatment and recovery will be painful.
We are only starting to scratch the surface of what’s needed to bring Europe as a continent back to strength, and it’s not just an auto industry problem. What it will take is an unknown right now but I know that the solution is definitely not an 8% annual pay increase while going to 27-hour work weeks!
It can be done
Just like Europe managed to re-build itself after half a decade of wars, we can do this. There is still time, while European OEM’s, contrary to troll disinformation, have healthy profits and balance sheets. The war is not lost and we should not roll over and sell our auto industry to the Chinese, as suggested by some of the same trolls.
But trade unions, industry and politicians have to come together to prevent de-industrialization of the West. And it’s not going to come without sacrifice on our part. Let’s be honest about that!
Remember, the auto industry is still the backbone of the European economy. Without it, Europe as we know it will quickly cease to exist. It’s not like when shipyards got shut down in the 70’s and replaced through creative destruction. Europe has nothing to replace the auto industry with. But only with that realization will we be willing to make the right choices.
Tu je vprašanje sin koga je bil na mopedu. Drugače se pa strinjam s tabo. Samo, ne vem če bo za tebe enako veljalo, če tole preizkusiš...
Če ja kaj resnice v tem kar govorim, potem se nedotakljivost nekaterih dviguje na previsoke nivoje. Seveda pa policisti s svojim velikokrat čudim pristopom (problem privzete prevelike avtoritete, ki v primeru napake ni odgovorna za nič) ne pomagajo v celotni zgodbi...
Mnja, na koncu poklicni vozni naredi manj nesreč, kot pa penzioner, ki še svojega nosa ne vidi za volanom.
Tak pač zavarovalnica več pobere oz. pavšalno pobere.
Isto kot vinjete. Ki so tudi do mene grozno ne fer.
Zdaj si pa potegnil dva ekstrema ven. Profi voznike in pa skupino, ki ima vozne sposobnosti na meji.
Komentar je šel bolj v smer, da pri vsej obdelavi podatkov in pametnjakovičih, ki so zaposleni v zavarovalnicah, bi lahko nekaterim ponudili popust. Kakor vem so po znamkah različne premije, ker vozniki BMW-jev so po statistiki bolj objestni kot pa drugi. No, vidim, da nek popust se omenja, samo meni ga ni nihče ponudil. Jih moram januarja zahaklati.
Ni za v to temo, ampak podobno je z omrežninami po novem. Sistem iz prejšnjega stoletja, pri vsej informatiki in obdelavi podatkov, ki je možna. Lahko bi pa mesečno plačal priključno moč, glede na to kaj si tisti mesec štroma kuril.
Za prevoženih 8kkm na leto in plačati 420€(v mojem primeru) namesto jurja je drugače kot pa prevoziti 100kkm in plačati jurja...🥴
To bi zavarovalnice morale nekako upoštevat....
Uf, s tem se pa strinjam. Če že statistiko uporabljajo za vsako sranje, bi lahko bilo jasno oz. bi lahko upoštevali, da je manjša možnost nezgode pri manj prevoženih km.
Spletna stran uporablja piškotke z namenom zagotavljanja funkcionalnosti in boljše uporabniške izkušnje spletnega mesta. Z uporabo spletnega mesta soglašate z uporabo piškotkov.
Napisano
A pri nas ne? Lani tak čas je bil pri Selmarju še katalog na pultu. Samo po naročilu iz Japonske kakor vem.
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